So, Panpandreou survives (again?) with a 153-145 majority.
But the 'government' needs 180 (of 300) to secure parliamentary approval for the October 26th second aid package.
This will require a 'national government' - and after this weeks gamesmanship this appears increasingly unlikely.
“The masks have fallen,” Antonis Samaras, head of the New Democracy party, said in an e-mailed statement from his Athens- based office today. “Papandreou has rejected all of our proposals. The responsibility he bears is huge. The only solution is elections.”
Without compromise it either be snap elections &/or Panpandreou trying to find 180 votes.
In which case - outside the news cycle babble - what price (probability) would you (the market) place on the validity of the following analysis?
“I would be very surprised if Greece doesn’t default in the next few weeks,” Lex Van Dam, who manages $500 million in assets at Hampstead Capital LLC in London. “I cannot see how the Europeans will pay the next tranche knowing that the Greeks will try and renegotiate the rest of the original Oct. 26 package once this payment has been made.”
Come Monday - without some mildly convincing form of grand coalition - I suspect it'll be uncomfortably high.
Quotes: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/papandreou-is-prepared-to-step-aside-if-he-wins-confidence-vote-in-greece.html
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