Tuesday 22 November 2011

Full Disclosure

For the first time in weeks 'hopepium' has been replaced by cold truth.

Even the most contrarian thinker/tailor/trader has had to accept the ECB will not be doing a Gandalf - suddenly appearing on the ridge and  riding to the Euro's rescue.

The Germans have drawn some type of inverted Maignot line and believe it will hold.

The pragmatism is almost admirable.

They might be even be right.

But it won't work.

I believe the probability of a full-blown existential 'will the Euro survive' &/or 'who will be left inside' crisis is now very high.

The opportunity to leverage the EFSF is diminishing by the day & France has already effectively lost its precious 'AAA' rating.

The economic & political pressures will continue to build in the peripheries and they will seep dangerously into the core.

Greece might pre-empt everything if Samaras continues to play dare with the 'troika' but I suspect the final installment of the first bail-out will be paid to buy a little more time.

Be patient - respect the fact that now everyone 'gets it' the bounces could be nasty - but time is limited.

As Martin Wolf (FT) observed - the only question is if and when the Merkel & the ECB blinks.

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