The Endgame Scenario

I have believed the Euro will survive .....

BUT only after a truly 'existential' crisis threatens its survival.

I believe that level of crisis lies ahead of us ......

BUT I'm less confident in my belief the Euro (certainly not with 16 members) will survive.

I'll defer to the impressive Willem Butler (FT: November 2nd) to outline the increasingly probable binary outcomes:

'The choice, sometime in 212 or, at the latest, 2013,  will be between a collapse in the euro area and the larger scale quasi-fiscal abuse of the ECB.'

Why?

Because 'using the ECB would be opaque, quasi-fiscal, off-budget and off balance sheet for national Treasuries.'

I strongly suspect the ECB (& the Germans) know this.

The question is how and IF we get there.