Dublin Calling: Monday January 9th 2012

European Close

Monday's? Always a struggle to redial the intensity, look at your (risk) positions and decide 'what do I really believe?'

For once - fortunately? - my 'strong opinions, weakly held' are all in play.

So-called fundamental (& bias) aside I believe charts (& the risk-reward) support:

 - A core short in European equities;
 - Waiting (hoping?) for the $SPX to 'complete' a top @ 1280-1300;
 - Continuing to sell/cover/re-sell EURO/$USD;
 - Building a short in AUD$/USD$;
 - Tentatively (VERY) buying $/YEN above recent lows.

Two themes dominate:

First, whilst I'm unsure when/if this becomes a full-blown 'risk off' trade, I think European equity markets have: (a) peeled away from the EURO 'break-up' trade; (b) face major macro economic headwinds; (c) are clinging on to the relative strength of the $SPX.

Second, I expect the USD$'s strength to broaden (beyond the EURO's travails) & with dampening global growth (see: China) the AUD$ (& other Asian currencies) looks very vulnerable. Buying the USD$ Index may well be the simplest (best) trade.

The rest (& I'll post my levels/entires) is in the trade management.

More of a 'muse' on the US close

Dublin Calling: Trading 101

As a trader I believe in looking for the looking for the TRUTH - however illusive - and interpreting the PATTERNS.

TRUTH? I'm a cynical (ex hedge fund) macro kinda guy.

PATTERNS? I'm a old fashioned wave (fib) counting tech.

Putting the two together - creating an edge? - is a life times work. And that only works if you get the DISCIPLINE right - most of the time?

I like to take a clear view - to swing risk on/off  to use modern parlance - but I'm always tentative ('strong opinion weakly held') in my risk taking.

Markets morph.

Markets often make no sense.

But the price is always RIGHT.

For 2012 I'm going to write about my trading semi-religously and very philosophically.

I've recently returned to full-time trading after a 3 year interlude.

I'm Irish.

I'm passionate.

I'm worried.

And in my (no so weak) opinion I think I've see this parts of this movie.

I hope to contribute - to add value to fellow traders/investors - but its gonna be fun regardless.

Tomorrow -  few themes to start the year.